Paper Key : IRJ************915
Author: Strong Yusuf Mashat
Date Published: 01 Apr 2024
Abstract
This research applies a three-stage nested design to analyze the 2023 National Assembly elections in Plateau State, Nigeria, focusing on the Plateau Central Senatorial district. The design allows investigation of factors at different hierarchical levels, namely Local Government Areas (LGAs), Wards, and Polling Units. Data were retrieved from the Independent National Electoral Commission's (INEC) Result Viewing Portal (IReV). The study aims to compute expected mean squares, estimate effect sizes, and determine the significance of variation between factors. The significance lies in the novel application of nested design in political analysis, offering a comprehensive understanding of electoral dynamics. The research utilizes Minitab for statistical computations, emphasizing the importance of this method in electoral studies. The result indicates significant effects at the Local Government Area (LGA) and Ward levels, emphasizing distinct electoral patterns and the influence of local dynamics. However, no significant differences were observed at the Polling Unit level at 5% significance level, indicating uniform voter behavior within analyzed LGAs and Wards. Variance component analysis reveals substantial contributions of LGAs and Wards to the total variance. Effect size computations show varying impacts of random factors at different nesting levels. Graphical analyses support the validity of statistical assumptions. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and electoral researchers, highlighting the importance of localized strategies and data quality improvement efforts for more accurate electoral analyses and informed decision-making. Recommendations include prioritizing localized strategies and continuous efforts to enhance public awareness of electoral processes at the local level.
DOI Requested